Analyst: Industry Orders Saw Strong Jump in September, But Trend Still Uncertain

Bratislava, 18 November (TASR) – The month-on-month rise in industrial orders of 12.9 percent in September was strong, but given the high volatility of orders it may not signal a reversal in the overall trend, analyst Tomas Bohacek of 365.bank stated after the data was released by the Statistics Office on Tuesday. According to Bohacek, industry remains split: investment-oriented segments are growing, while cyclical and technology sectors face continued decline. "September brought the first convincing improvement after months of stagnation – but for now it's more of a technical rebound than a confirmed growth trend," he said. Half of the monitored sectors contributed to improvements, with the main driver being the manufacture of metal structures, which increased by almost 50 percent. Positive impetus also came from machinery and equipment production and from the chemicals industry. Bohacek noted that these segments are often sensitive to the investment cycle, so their growth may indicate a slight revival in capital expenditure in Europe. Conversely, technologically demanding sectors continue to struggle – electrical equipment, electronics and optics, as well as paper production, remained under pressure from weak foreign demand. According to Bohacek, November and December will bring a mixed picture, with industry fluctuating around stagnation, although the deeper downturn months seen in the spring are unlikely to be repeated. He sees scope for stabilisation mainly in machinery production, which has been among the more stable segments for several months now. Conversely, technology sectors will remain weak until a gradual normalisation of European demand becomes evident. mf/df