Analyst: Good Harvest May Ease Food Inflation, But Impact on Prices Uncertain

Bratislava, 1 September (TASR) – A favourable outlook for the production of key food commodities suggests that wholesale food inflation in Slovakia could slow down in autumn and early 2026, which, however, may not fully translate into lower prices for consumers, according to 365.bank analyst Tomas Bohacek. Bohacek spoke in response to the second harvest estimate for cereal crops published by the Statistics Office earlier on Monday. Higher domestic production should help ease price pressure on flour, bread, and bakery products, but domestic risks remain, Bohacek warned. Planned government fiscal consolidation could introduce new tax burdens or regulatory changes in sectors affecting food prices, potentially offsetting some of the benefits of the strong harvest. „We believe that farm-gate prices will decline more than retail prices, as increased competition among farmers driven by abundant yields will have a greater impact there," Bohacek added. According to the Statistics Office's estimate as of 15 August— by which time most cereals, including rapeseed, have already been harvested — Slovakia’s total grain harvest in 2025 is expected to reach 3.1 million tonnes. This represents a year-on-year increase of more than 20 percent, or 527,000 tonnes. The rise is mainly attributed to significantly higher average yields per hectare, compared to both last year and the five-year average. mf/mcs