Analysts Not Expecting Foreign Trade Surpluses to Grow in Months Ahead

Bratislava, 8 July (TASR) - Slovakia's foreign trade surpluses aren't expected to grow in the coming months and will be driven down by weak external demand and the low level of competitiveness among domestic exporters, partly due to a worsened domestic business environment, UniCredit Bank analyst Lubomir Korsnak stated in his commentary on foreign trade balance data for May published by the Statistics Office on Wednesday. "On the other hand, a more significant reduction in foreign trade surpluses will be prevented by low domestic demand, which will also hamper import growth. Trade surpluses are thus expected to ease to 1.5 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) by the end of the year, falling from the current levels of 2.2 to 2.3 percent of GDP, and from last year's 2.0 percent of GDP," explained Korsnak. Slovenska sporitelna analyst Marian Kocis stated that the foreign trade surplus for the first five months of this year reached €1.3 billion, while "the full-year surplus is expected to remain close to 2 percent of GDP". He added that geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to be one of the key external risks for developments in foreign trade. Despite oil prices having plummeted recently, the situation remains fragile and could quickly feed through into energy prices, with more volatile energy prices undermining the competitiveness of Slovak industry, said Kocis. "Besides energy prices, the main challenges still include weaker global demand, a slower economic recovery and persistent geopolitical uncertainty. When combined, these seem to represent more of a headwind for the Slovak economy than an environment conducive to a stronger acceleration in exports," added the Slovenska sporitelna analyst. According to preliminary data published by the Statistics Office on Wednesday, Slovakia's exports increased by 2.3 percent year-on-year (y-o-y) to €9.6 billion in May 2026, while imports rose by 1.7 percent to €9.1 billion, with the y-o-y growth rate of exports exceeding that of imports for the third consecutive month. Slovakia thus posted a trade balance surplus of €580.6 million in May, up by €58.8 million from the same period in 2025 and the highest since June 2023. jrg/df