Analysts Not Ruling Out Pressure on Food Prices in Months to Come

Bratislava, 14 May (TASR) - So far, the strongest impact of the Middle East conflict has been on fuel prices, but pressure on food prices cannot be ruled out in the coming months, said Marian Kocis, an analyst at Slovenska sporitelna bank, in a commentary on the inflation data for April published by the Statistics Office on Thursday. In Slovakia, food accounts for roughly one-fifth of the consumer basket and remains a significant inflationary channel, added Kocis. "Costs of agricultural inputs, especially nitrogenous fertilisers, the prices of which have risen significantly since the outbreak of the war, also pose an additional inflationary risk. As the key input at the start of the agricultural season, some of this increase may be reflected in end-consumer prices, particularly during the second half of the year," warned Kocis. "For now, our 2026 inflation forecast remains unchanged at 4 percent. However, the ongoing conflict and the associated inflationary pressures represent a significant upward risk. In 2027, we expect inflation to slow down towards 3 percent," he added. According to WOOD & Company analyst Eva Sadovska, estimating the inflation trend until the end of this year is extremely challenging at this time. "If oil prices continue to rise and if this lasts for a longer period of time, we would hardly avoid higher inflation in Slovakia as well," she added. "Fuels and energy are inputs for many other types of goods and services, which is why higher costs may contribute to an increase in their prices. Depending on the development and duration of the conflict [in Iran] or its impact on global markets, inflation estimates for this year will probably be revised, mostly likely in an upwards direction," said Sadovska. As reported by the Statistics Office earlier on Thursday, consumer prices of goods and services were up by 0.5 percent month-on-month in April, the second-highest increase this year after January (up 1.8 percent). Meanwhile, inflation rose to 3.9 percent year-on-year, also the second-highest since January of this year. jrg/df