Analysts: This Year's foreign trade balance Should Go Down to 1% of GDP

Bratislava, 7 May (TASR) - The conflict in the Middle East and the resulting rise in oil and gas prices likely signal the end of the trend toward a gradual widening of the nominal trade surplus and in the coming months, we will see the surplus begin to narrow again, UniCredit Bank analyst Lubomir Korsnak said in a commentary on the March foreign trade balance data published by the Statistics Office, adding that this year's surplus is expected to decline to 1 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) from the current level of 2.2 percent of GDP. "Higher import prices will be the main factor pushing surpluses downward. However, the conflict in the Middle East is likely to affect real economic growth - both domestically and among key trading partners - and will therefore also result in a slight slowdown in real export growth," he stated. "On the other hand, foreign trade (and exports) could still receive a boost this year from the German "fiscal bazooka" (indirectly through exports of materials/semi-finished goods for weapons production), as well as from growing surpluses in electricity trade following the launch of the fourth unit at the Mochovce nuclear power plant. Moreover, domestic fiscal consolidation will continue to dampen growth in domestic demand, and thus the domestic economy's reliance on imports from abroad," he emphasised. According to Marian Kocis, an analyst at Slovenska sporitelna bank, foreign trade remains under the influence of weaker external demand and subdued investment and production activity in parts of Europe. "Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to be among the significant external risks to the future development of foreign trade. This could translate into increased volatility in oil and gas prices, and thus into higher costs for industrial production and transportation. Higher and more volatile energy prices could further erode the competitiveness of industry,” he stressed. "In addition to energy prices, weakened global demand, a slower economic recovery, and persistent geopolitical uncertainty remain major challenges. Their combination thus continues to represent more of a headwind for the Slovak economy than an environment conducive to a significant acceleration in exports," added the Slovenska sporitelna analyst. According to preliminary data, Slovakia exported goods worth €10.1 billion in March 2026, up 0.5 percent year-on-year (y-o-y), while imports fell 1.6 percent to €9.6 billion, with the trade balance seeing a surplus of €591.5 million, up €205 million y-o-y, the Statistics Office reported on Thursday, adding that exports returned to a y-o-y increase after two months, while imports fell for the fourth consecutive month. am/mcs