Analysts: Regulated Prices Will Primarily Influence Inflation in 2026 (2)

Bratislava, 15 January (TASR) - Regulated prices will be the main factor determining inflation this year, and the increase in heating prices could formally raise inflation by more than half a percentage point, although this increase will be compensated for a significant portion of households via "energy vouchers", UniCredit Bank analyst Lubomir Korsnak stated in a commentary on inflation data for December and the whole of 2025 that was published by the Statistics Office on Thursday. "Unlike heating, energy assistance for electricity and gas will continue to be provided via price subsidies. However, it will no longer apply to all households. Approximately 10 percent of households will pay a higher, unsubsidised price for electricity and gas, which should also increase overall inflation (by tenths, one to two tenths)," he stated. Korsnak stated that, in his opinion, inflation will continue to be driven upwards by rising service prices, which will also be affected by a record 12-percent increase in the minimum wage. According to him, food prices are unlikely to have a significant impact on inflation this year. "Inflation should remain at around 4 percent at the beginning of 2026, with the potential for a gradual slowdown during the year. For the whole of this year, our inflation outlook is close to 3.5 percent. However, the risks remain skewed in an upwards direction, particularly in the event of further administrative interventions in prices, more rapid salary growth or external shocks," emphasised analyst at 365.bank Tomas Bohacek. "This year, we expect average price growth to be at a similar level of around 4 percent, which would make Slovakia the country with the second-highest growth in prices in the European bloc [after Romania on around 6 percent]. One of the reasons for higher inflation is energy price regulation, which we've been pushing along for several years," added Slovenska sporitelna bank analyst Matej Hornak. Inflation won't slow down significantly at the beginning of 2026, opined analysts at the Slovak central bank (NBS). "We expect it to be close to 4 percent in January. This will be mainly due to the growth in regulated prices of heat, gas and electricity for households," added NBS analysts. "Inflation in the current year of 2026 will be influenced by how our economy and unemployment fare. Continuing consolidation and energy price developments, depending on the much-discussed energy aid, will also play a role. Of course, developments on global markets, trade tensions (war), and increasing tariffs pose significant inflationary risks for Slovakia. At the moment, we believe that the growth in prices of goods and services this year will be at a similar level to last year," stated analyst at WOOD & Company Eva Sadovska. The Statistics Office reported that consumer prices of goods and services fell by 0.3 percent month-on-month in December, the only drop recorded in 2025. The pace of year-on-year inflation accelerated slightly to 3.8 percent, but this was the second-lowest level last year (the lowest, at 3.7 percent, was recorded in April, October and November). Over the full 12 months of 2025, consumer prices rose by 4 percent year-on-year. NOTE: This story has been extended to include the final three paragraphs. am/df