Analysts: Retail Sales Growth to Remain Among Slowest in EU Next Year

Bratislava, 6 November (TASR) – A more significant revival of retail sales in Slovakia is unlikely even next year, and their growth rate is expected to remain among the slowest in the European Union, UniCredit Bank analyst Lubomir Korsnak said in a commentary on September retail sales data published by the Statistics Office. “Year-on-year retail growth in the last quarter of this year will be (technically) affected by an unfavourable base effect (a higher comparison base), as last year's end-of-year sales in the non-food segment (particularly car sales) were inflated by pre-stocking ahead of the impending VAT increase,” Korsnak explained. According to him, September retail figures pose a pleasant surprise and show that households are still coping relatively well with increased inflation, slower wage growth and a slight rise in unemployment, although compared to the rest of the EU (and neighbouring countries), the negative impact of fiscal consolidation on retail sales is still apparent. “According to the Statistics Office's consumer barometer, household sentiment remains below the long-term average and has shown no signs of improvement in recent months. Another wave of consolidation, which will also affect the net incomes of households and the self-employed, could therefore bring another wave of household ‘saving’ (in consumption),” Korsnak added. “The best retail result so far this year was supported by a still decent pace of nominal wage growth, which remains above the eurozone average. With lowered sentiment, households are considering every purchase more carefully, reducing the scope for spontaneous purchases, such as online shopping,” said analyst of Slovenska Sporitelna Marian Kocis. “Fluctuating retail results can still be expected in the last quarter of the year. New consolidation measures will not contribute to improving household sentiment or boosting consumer appetite. These will affect households' disposable incomes next year, reducing their capacity for savings and therefore not supporting demand. Overall, we expect the growth rate of total household consumption, as part of GDP, to slow significantly compared to last year but remain in positive territory,” Kocis concluded. The Statistics Office reported that retail sales in Slovakia rose by 1.4 percent year-on-year in September 2025. After adjusting for inflation (in constant prices), the sector recorded higher sales than a year ago for the third time since the beginning of the year. The current growth is the sector's best monthly result this year. Seasonally adjusted sales increased by 1.6 percent month-on-month in September. mf