Analysts Expect Foreign Trade Surpluses to Be Squeezed by Rising Import Prices

Bratislava, 9 June (TASR) - The conflict in the Middle East and the ensuing higher oil and gas prices probably mean that the trend of gradually expanding nominal foreign trade surpluses is coming to an end, stated UniCredit Bank analyst Lubomir Korsnak in a commentary on the foreign trade balance data for April published by the Statistics Office earlier on Tuesday, adding that surpluses may start shrinking in the months to come. "Therefore, we assume that this year's surplus should decline from the current level of 2.3 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) to somewhere between 1 and 1.5 percent of GDP. To a large extent, surpluses will be pushed downward primarily by higher import prices," specified Korsnak. He added that the Middle East conflict will probably affect real economic growth as well, both domestically and when it comes to key trading partners. This, in turn, will cause growth in real exports to slow down slightly. Furthermore, fiscal consolidation measures will continue to dampen growth in domestic demand, thereby reducing the demand for imports from abroad. Slovenska sporitelna analyst Maximilian Weber noted that geopolitical tensions in the Middle East remain among the significant external risks for future trends in foreign trade. "This could be translated into increased volatility in oil and gas prices, and also into the costs of industrial production and transport. Higher and more volatile energy prices could make industry less competitive still," stressed Weber. "In addition to energy prices, the main challenges include weaker global demand, a slower economic recovery and persistent geopolitical uncertainty, thus representing a headwind for the Slovak economy rather than an environment that allows exports to speed up considerably," added Weber. The Statistics Office reported on Tuesday that, based on preliminary data, Slovakia exported goods worth €9.5 billion in April 2026, up 4.5 percent year-on-year (y-o-y), while imports rose by 2.6 percent to €9.4 billion, with the foreign trade balance seeing a surplus of €76 million, up €166.2 million y-o-y. jrg/df